Let's start this month with a look at the housing market.
It's the same story as last month I'm afraid. The demand is there but the supply is not.
There are just not enough properties on the market at present. This is limiting activity and maintaining the upward pressure on prices. The situation is likely to continue for the coming months as traditionally Christmas is not a busy time for new instructions - which declined in September for the 8th successive month.
Hopefully we will see more property come to the market in January 2016. With interest rates low and lenders showing signs of wanting to give mortgages, it is still a good time to buy. We just need more choice!
Halifax have posted the following for October 2015:
Yearly change in house prices +9.7%
Quarterly change +2.8%
Monthly change +1.1%
Nationwide Building Society are slightly more conservative with their figures:
Monthly change +0.6%
Yearly Change +3.9%
Whichever set of numbers you look at, these are really positive figures and far exceeding expectations so far this year.
The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold again for another month. The voting from the inner circle was a massive 8-1 majority for keeping rates the same again at 0.5%.
In terms of predictions, these are changing once again with forecasts as to when rates will rise being put back.
Capital Economics have projected that the Base Rate from the Bank of England will be 1% by the end of 2016 (0.5% rise) and 1.5% by the end of 2017 (1% rise from now). It is clear that any rises will be slow and gradual.
As to when the expected rise will happen, the Centre for Economics & Business Research (CEBR) have changed their minds from February 2016 to either May or August 2016. With such a grand title, you would have thought that they could decide between May or August!! Talk about hedging your bets...
The overall consensus is that the economy is not doing as well (inflation and growth forecasts have been cut) and so any rise will now be in the latter stages of 2016 but according to the Governor of the Bank of England "it is reasonably prudent to think the BOE rate will rise in 2016".
So, as usual the message is clear - the rise is coming but we're just not sure when!
It is still a great time to fix your payments as the deals on offer are really low and they will be withdrawn the closer we get to any potential rate rise.
Next month we will look back on the year to see how the start of year predictions have turned out and review the changes in the mortgage market.
If you have any questions or wish to discuss your mortgage options, please do not hesitate to call me on 0844 736 1920.
YOUR HOME IS AT RISK IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE